Agent-based modeling; River floods; Travel demand; MATSim
Abstract :
[en] In Belgium, river floods are among the most frequent natural disasters and they may have important consequences on travel demand. In order to better understand how the travel patterns vary, we propose to set up a large scale scenario based on MATSim for guarantying an accurate assessment of the impact of river floods on the transportation system. As inputs, the current agent-based model requires a base year population. A synthetic population with respective set of attributes is generated as a key input. Afterwards, agents are assigned activity chains through an activity-based generation process. Finally, the synthetic population and the transportation network are integrated into MATSim. Regarding data, households travel surveys, OD matrix of Belgium have been used to set up the demand. For simulating river floods effects, a steady-state inundation map has been integrated within MATSim. In the current study, five scenarios have been tested where critical links are associated various levels of service, i.e. 10%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% (base case scenario). They are systematically compared to the standard scenario to estimate the deviations in terms of traffic patterns and travel times. The results suggest that compared to the standard scenario, the average trip travel time increased by 16.36%, 44.44%, 126.77% and 144.44% with respect to scenarios 75%, 50%, 25% and 10% respectively. Also, the traffic flows have been re-distributed more uniformly across the transportation network. Roads with important traffic volumes are subjected to a decrease of activity on the contrary of roads with low traffic volumes. A very few studies have focused on how river floods affect transportation systems, this paper provided new insights in term of methodology and traffic patterns analysis under disruptions.
Research center :
Lepur : Centre de Recherche sur la Ville, le Territoire et le Milieu rural - ULiège UEE - Urban and Environmental Engineering - ULiège LEMA : Local Environment Management & Analysis
Disciplines :
Engineering, computing & technology: Multidisciplinary, general & others
Author, co-author :
Saadi, Ismaïl ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département ArGEnCo > Transports et mobilité
El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département ArGEnCo > LEMA (Local environment management and analysis)
Teller, Jacques ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département ArGEnCo > Urbanisme et aménagement du territoire
Cools, Mario ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département ArGEnCo > Transports et mobilité
Language :
English
Title :
Investigating the impact of river floods on travel demand based on an agent-based modeling approach: The case of Liège, Belgium
Publication date :
15 September 2018
Journal title :
Transport Policy
ISSN :
0967-070X
eISSN :
1879-310X
Publisher :
Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science
Volume :
67
Pages :
102-110
Peer reviewed :
Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi
Name of the research project :
FloodLand
Funders :
ARC grant for Concerted Research Actions, financed by the Wallonia-Brussels Federation
Balac, M., Ciari, F., Axhausen, K.W., Modeling the impact of parking price policy on free-floating carsharing: case study for zurich, Switzerland. Transp. Res. Part C Emerg. Technol. 77 (2017), 207–225.
Beckers, A., Dewals, B., Erpicum, S., Dujardin, S., Detrembleur, S., Teller, J., Pirotton, M., Archambeau, P., Contribution of land use changes to future flood damage along the river meuse in the walloon region. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 13 (2013), 2301–2318.
Charypar, D., Nagel, K., Generating complete all-day activity plans with genetic algorithms. Transportation 32 (2005), 369–397.
Chen, X.-Z., Lu, Q.-C., Peng, Z.-R., Ash, J.E., Analysis of transportation network vulnerability under flooding disasters. Transp. Res. Rec. J. Transp. Res. Board 2532 (2015), 37–44.
Cools, M., Moons, E., Wets, G., Assessing the quality of origin-destination matrices derived from activity travel surveys: results from a monte carlo experiment. Transp. Res. Rec. J. Transp. Res. Board 2183 (2010), 49–59.
Du, Q., Kishi, K., Nakatsuji, T., Vulnerability evaluation of logistics transportation networks under seismic disasters. Transp. Res. Rec. J. Transp. Res. Board 2532 (2015), 45–55.
Erath, A., Birdsall, J., Axhausen, K., Hajdin, R., Vulnerability assessment methodology for swiss road network. Transp. Res. Rec. J. Transp. Res. Board 2137 (2009), 118–126.
Horni, A., Nagel, K., Axhausen, K.W., The Multi-agent Transport Simulation Matsim, vol. 9, 2016, Ubiquity, London.
Hülsmann, F., Gerike, R., Ketzel, M., Modelling traffic and air pollution in an integrated approach–the case of munich. Urban Clim. 10 (2014), 732–744.
Lämmel, G., Grether, D., Nagel, K., The representation and implementation of time-dependent inundation in large-scale microscopic evacuation simulations. Transp. Res. Part C Emerg. Technol. 18 (2010), 84–98.
Novosel, T., Perković L., Ban, M., Keko, H., Pukšec, T., Krajačić G., Duić N., Agent based modelling and energy planning–utilization of matsim for transport energy demand modelling. Energy 92 (2015), 466–475.
Pregnolato, M., Ford, A., Robson, C., Glenis, V., Barr, S., Dawson, R., Assessing urban strategies for reducing the impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure networks. R. Soc. open Sci., 3, 2016, 160023.
Saadi, I., Bruwier, M., Mustafa, A., Peltier, Y., Archambeau, P., Erpicum, S., Orban, P., Dassargues, A., Dewals, B., Pirotton, M., et al. Development trajectory of an integrated framework for the mitigation of future flood risk: results from the floodland project. Transp. Lett., 2017, 1–14, 10.1080/19427867.2016.1256120 (in press).
Saadi, I., Eftekhar, H., Mustafa, A., Teller, J., Cools, M., An agent-based micro-simulation framework to assess the impact of river floods on transportation systems: implementation trajectory for an assessment in the brussels metropolitan area. Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Traffic and Transport Engineering (ICTTE), 2014, 489–495 Belgrade, Serbia http://www.ijtte.com/uploads/news_files/ICTTE_Belgrade_2014-Proceedings.pdf.
Saadi, I., Mustafa, A., Teller, J., Cools, M., Forecasting travel behavior using markov chains-based approaches. Transp. Res. Part C Emerg. Technol. 69 (2016), 402–417.
Saadi, I., Mustafa, A., Teller, J., Farooq, B., Cools, M., Hidden markov model-based population synthesis. Transp. Res. Part B Methodol. 90 (2016), 1–21.
Yin, W., Murray-Tuite, P., Ukkusuri, S.V., Gladwin, H., An agent-based modeling system for travel demand simulation for hurricane evacuation. Transp. Res. part C Emerg. Technol. 42 (2014), 44–59.
Zockaie, A., Mahmassani, H., Saberi, M., Verbas, Ö., Dynamics of urban network traffic flow during a large-scale evacuation. Transp. Res. Rec. J. Transp. Res. Board 2422 (2014), 21–33.