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See detailAdvanced porosity-based models to assess the influence of urban layouts on inundation flows and impact of urban evolution on flood damage
Bruwier, Martin ULiege

Doctoral thesis (2017)

Worldwide, flood risk is expected to increase over the 21st century due to the combined effect of climate and land use changes. However, while the impact of climate change on future flood risk was ... [more ▼]

Worldwide, flood risk is expected to increase over the 21st century due to the combined effect of climate and land use changes. However, while the impact of climate change on future flood risk was extensively studied, the effects of urbanization remain unclear. The goal of this PhD thesis is to contribute to a better understanding of the influence of future urban development on changes in inundation flows as well as on the related damage. First, an original porosity-based model was developed, which enables efficient computation of urban flooding. It uses anisotropic porosity parameters to reproduce the influence of subgrid-scale obstacles on the flow. An original merging technique was implemented to optimize the computational efficiency in the presence of low values of the storage porosity parameter. Compared to a standard inundation model, the developed model enables speedup factors of the order of 100, while keeping the error on the flow variables at a few percent. Second, we systematically investigated how the layout of buildings located in floodplains influences the inundation characteristics for a long-duration flood scenario. The anisotropic porosity-based model was used to compute the flow variables for 2,000 alternative urban patterns. Correlations between the computed water depths and the urban characteristics reveal which features of the layout of buildings influences most the severity of urban flooding. In particular, the results suggest how the hydraulic effect of new urban development can be effectively mitigated by a suitable location of the buildings preserving a higher flow conveyance at the district-scale. This result provides guidance for more flood-proof urban developments. Finally, we evaluated the evolution of future flood damage as a result of urbanization along all the main rivers in the Walloon region, Belgium. The study was conducted at the regional level using detailed hydraulic results (resolution of 2 to 5 m). Despite high uncertainties in the considered urbanization scenarios, involving both urban expansion and densification, robust conclusions could be drawn, such as the overwhelming influence of banning new developments in flood-prone areas compared to the other tested facets of urban planning policy. [less ▲]

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See detailInfluence of urban patterns on flooding
Bruwier, Martin ULiege; Mustafa, Ahmed; Aliaga, Daniel et al

in E-proceedings of the 37th IAHR World Congress (2017, August)

The goal of this paper is to identify the respective influence of different characteristics of urban patterns on urban flooding. A set of 2,290 alternate urban patterns was generated randomly using an ... [more ▼]

The goal of this paper is to identify the respective influence of different characteristics of urban patterns on urban flooding. A set of 2,290 alternate urban patterns was generated randomly using an urban generator tool providing the geometry of buildings and their relative location to the ground, over a square area of 1 km². Steady 2-D hydraulic computations were performed for these 2,290 different urban patterns with identical hydraulic boundary conditions. The computational time was reduced by using an anisotropic porosity model. This model uses relatively coarse computational cells; but preserves information from the detailed topographic data through the use of porosity parameters. Based on the computed maps of waterdepths for the 2,290 urban patterns, a sensitivity analysis based on a multiple linear regression was performed to outline the most influential urban characteristics. [less ▲]

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See detailModèles de porosité pour les inondations urbaines
Dewals, Benjamin ULiege; Bruwier, Martin ULiege; El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULiege et al

Scientific conference (2017, July 25)

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See detailShallow water model with anisotropic porosity for flood modelling on Cartesian grids
Bruwier, Martin ULiege; Archambeau, Pierre ULiege; Erpicum, Sébastien ULiege et al

Conference (2017, June)

Detailed topographic data have become widely available for inundation mapping. While the use of such high-resolution data enables the computation of flow variables at a fine scale, the computation time ... [more ▼]

Detailed topographic data have become widely available for inundation mapping. While the use of such high-resolution data enables the computation of flow variables at a fine scale, the computation time remains too high for many practical applications. In contrast, models solving the shallow-water equations with porosity provide a useful tool to improve the computational efficiency, while preserving to some extent the detailed topographic information through porosity parameters. In this study, we present a new model solving the fully dynamic shallow water equations with anisotropic porosity based on Cartesian grids. Using a Cartesian grid leads to specific challenges, particularly as regards the definition of the conveyance porosities at the cell edges. Moreover, the presented model is further improved by a merging method so as to increase the computational efficiency without affecting the overall accuracy. The performance of the model has been evaluated based on a wide range of test cases, which confirm the validity of the model and the benefits of such a modelling framework. [less ▲]

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See detailLessons learned from combined experimental and numerical modelling of urban floods
Archambeau, Pierre ULiege; Bruwier, Martin ULiege; Finaud-Guyot, Pascal et al

Conference (2017, April)

Field data for validating hydraulic models remain scarce, They are often limited to inundation extents and water marks, which provide little insights into the dynamic features of the flow in urbanized ... [more ▼]

Field data for validating hydraulic models remain scarce, They are often limited to inundation extents and water marks, which provide little insights into the dynamic features of the flow in urbanized floodplains, such as the discharge partition in-between the streets and the velocity fields. To address this issue, a unique experimental setup representing a whole urban district was built in the laboratory ICube in Strasbourg and the state-of-the-art shallow- water model Wolf 2D was tested against the experimental measurements (An'ault et al, 2016), The numerical model was also used to extend and refine the analysis of the laboratory observations. The experimental model (5 m >< 5 m) represents a square urban district with a total of l4 streets of different Widths and 49 intersections (crossroads). The inflow discharge can be controlled in each street individually and the outflow discharges were measured downstream of each street. The numerical model Wolf was developed at the University of Liege and has been extensively used in flood risk research (Beckers et al, 2013, Bruwier et al. 2015, Detrembleur et al. 2015). Several lessons could be learned from this combined experimental and numerical analysis. First, we found that the discharge partition in—between the streets is primarily controlled by the street widths. Second, although the standard shallow-water equations reproduce satisfactorily tnost of the flow characteristics, adding a turbulence model improves the prediction of the shape and length of the flow recirculations in the streets. Yet, this has little influence on the discharge partition because the computed recirculation widths are hardly affected by the turbulence model. The experiments and the numerical model also show that the water depths in the streets remain fairly constant in~between two intersections, while they drop suddenly downstream of each intersection as a result of complex flow interactions at the intersections. This hints that friction has little influence on the water depths obtained in the experiments. However, tailored numerical tests demonstrate that this is a direct consequence of the distorted nature of the experimental setup. Indeed, the ratio between the water depth and the street width is close to 1 in the experiments, while it would be at least one order of magnitude lower in real-world conditions, even for extreme floods. Finally, remote sensing data, such as digital elevation models, are generally available on a regular grid, which makes it convenient to use also a Cartesian grid for hydraulic modelling, We show here that the discretization of the geometry of the buildings on such a Cartesian grid has a major influence on the modelling accuracy (overestimation of the overall flow resistance). An extended shallow-water model based on non-isotropic porosity parameters is shown to improve substantially the prediction of the discharge partition in-between the streets. It is therefore considered as a valuable tool to advance urban flood modelling in practice. From the lessons learned here, we recommend that future research focuses on the design and exploitation of a less distorted experimental model, as well as on the analysis of extra flow processes such as transient conditions and interactions between overland flow and pressurized flow in underground passages. [less ▲]

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See detailSystematic flood modelling to support flood-proof urban design
Bruwier, Martin ULiege; Mustafa, Ahmed; Aliaga, Daniel et al

Poster (2017, April)

Urban flood risk is influenced by many factors such as hydro-meteorological drivers, existing drainage systems as well as vulnerability of population and assets. The urban fabric itself has also a complex ... [more ▼]

Urban flood risk is influenced by many factors such as hydro-meteorological drivers, existing drainage systems as well as vulnerability of population and assets. The urban fabric itself has also a complex influence on inundation flows. In this research, we performed a systematic analysis on how various characteristics of urban patterns control inundation flow within the urban area and upstream of it. An urban generator tool was used to generate over 2,250 synthetic urban networks of 1 km². This tool is based on the procedural modelling presented by Parish and Müller (2001) which was adapted to generate a broader variety of urban networks. Nine input parameters were used to control the urban geometry. Three of them define the average length, orientation and curvature of the streets. Two orthogonal major roads, for which the width constitutes the fourth input parameter, work as constraints to generate the urban network. The width of secondary streets is given by the fifth input parameter. Each parcel generated by the street network based on a parcel mean area parameter can be either a park or a building parcel depending on the park ratio parameter. Three setback parameters constraint the exact location of the building whithin a building parcel. For each of synthetic urban network, detailed two-dimensional inundation maps were computed with a hydraulic model. The computational efficiency was enhanced by means of a porosity model. This enables the use of a coarser computational grid , while preserving information on the detailed geometry of the urban network (Sanders et al. 2008). These porosity parameters reflect not only the void fraction, which influences the storage capacity of the urban area, but also the influence of buildings on flow conveyance (dynamic effects). A sensitivity analysis was performed based on the inundation maps to highlight the respective impact of each input parameter characteristizing the urban networks. The findings of the study pinpoint which properties of urban networks have a major influence on urban inundation flow, enabling better informed flood-proof urban design. [less ▲]

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See detailUrbanization and changing flood risk: a multi-level analysis
Dewals, Benjamin ULiege; Bruwier, Martin ULiege; El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULiege et al

in Bronstert, Axel; Thieken, Annegret; Petrow, Theresia (Eds.) et al The Effects of Global Change on Floods, Fluvial Geomorphology and Related Hazards in Mountainous Rivers (2017, March 06)

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See detailLanduse change and future flood risk: the influence of micro-scale spatial patterns (FloodLand) - 5th progress report
Dewals, Benjamin ULiege; Bruwier, Martin ULiege; El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULiege et al

Report (2017)

The goal of the project FloodLand is to investigate the complex interactions between landuse change and future flood risk. Landuse change is assumed to be mainly driven by population growth and socio ... [more ▼]

The goal of the project FloodLand is to investigate the complex interactions between landuse change and future flood risk. Landuse change is assumed to be mainly driven by population growth and socio-economic factors. It affects future flood risk by altering catchment hydrology as well as vulnerability in the floodplains; but the feedback effect of (the perception of) changes in flood hazard on landuse evolution is also considered. The research is based on a chain of modelling tools, which represent parts of the natural and human systems, including: landuse change modelling, transportation modelling as an onset for the estimation of indirect flood damage, continuous hydrological modelling (forced by precipitation and temperature data disturbed according to climate change scenarios), as well as efficient hydraulic modelling of inundation flow in the floodplains. Besides reproducing a broad spectrum of processes, the modelling approach spans over multiple scales, from the regional or catchment level down to the floodplain and building levels. This distinctive feature is reflected both within the individual models and through their combination involving fine-scale detailed analyses (or data) embedded within coarser models at a broader level. [less ▲]

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See detailComputing flooding of crossroads with obstacles using a 2D numerical model (Discussion)
Bruwier, Martin ULiege; Erpicum, Sébastien ULiege; Archambeau, Pierre ULiege et al

in Journal of Hydraulic Research (2017), 55(5), 737-741

Based on an operational 2D shallow-water model, the Authors computed subcritical dividing flow at a three-branch crossroad, considering obstacles located at different positions. The numerical predictions ... [more ▼]

Based on an operational 2D shallow-water model, the Authors computed subcritical dividing flow at a three-branch crossroad, considering obstacles located at different positions. The numerical predictions were compared to observations from Mignot et al. (2013). Two issues are addressed here, related respectively to the efficiency and relevance of the turbulence model, and to the representation of the obstacles in operational flood models. [less ▲]

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See detailShallow-water models with anisotropic porosity and merging for flood modelling on Cartesian grids
Bruwier, Martin ULiege; Archambeau, Pierre ULiege; Erpicum, Sébastien ULiege et al

in Journal of Hydrology (2017)

Shallow-water models with porosity are used to compute floods at a relatively coarse resolution while accounting indirectly for detailed topographic data through porosity parameters. In many practical ... [more ▼]

Shallow-water models with porosity are used to compute floods at a relatively coarse resolution while accounting indirectly for detailed topographic data through porosity parameters. In many practical applications, these models enable a significant reduction of the computational time while maintaining an acceptable level of accuracy. In this paper, we improve the use of porosity models on Cartesian grids by three original contributions. First, a merging technique is used to handle cells with low porosity values which tend otherwise to seriously hamper computational efficiency. Next, we show that the optimal method for the determination of the porosity parameters depends on the modelling scale, i.e. the grid resolution compared to the characteristic size of obstacles and flow ways. Finally, we investigate the potential benefit of using a different porosity parameter in each term of the shallow-water equations. Five test cases, two of them being original, are used to validate the model and assess each contribution. In particular, we obtained speedup values between 10 and 100 while the errors on water depths remain around few percent. [less ▲]

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See detailLanduse change and future flood risk: the influence of micro-scale spatial patterns (FloodLand) - 4th progress report
Dewals, Benjamin ULiege; Bruwier, Martin ULiege; El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULiege et al

Report (2016)

The goal of the project FloodLand is to investigate the complex interactions between landuse change and future flood risk. Landuse change is assumed to be mainly driven by population growth and socio ... [more ▼]

The goal of the project FloodLand is to investigate the complex interactions between landuse change and future flood risk. Landuse change is assumed to be mainly driven by population growth and socio-economic factors. It affects future flood risk by altering catchment hydrology as well as vulnerability in the floodplains; but the feedback effect of (the perception of) changes in flood hazard on landuse evolution is also considered. The research is based on a chain of modelling tools, which represent parts of the natural and human systems, including: landuse change modelling, transportation modelling as an onset for the estimation of indirect flood damage, continuous hydrological modelling (forced by precipitation and temperature data disturbed according to climate change scenarios), as well as efficient hydraulic modelling of inundation flow in the floodplains. Besides reproducing a broad spectrum of processes, the modelling approach spans over multiple scales, from the regional or catchment level down to the floodplain and building levels. This distinctive feature is reflected both within the individual models and through their combination involving fine-scale detailed analyses (or data) embedded within coarser models at a broader level. [less ▲]

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See detailA benchmark for urban flood modelling
Arrault, Anaïs; Finaud-Guyot, Pascal; Archambeau, Pierre ULiege et al

Poster (2016, October 25)

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See detailContribution of future urbanisation expansion to flood risk changes
Bruwier, Martin ULiege; Mustafa, Ahmed; Archambeau, Pierre ULiege et al

Conference (2016, April)

The flood risk is expected to increase in the future due to climate change and urban development. Climate change modifies flood hazard and urban development influences exposure and vulnerability to floods ... [more ▼]

The flood risk is expected to increase in the future due to climate change and urban development. Climate change modifies flood hazard and urban development influences exposure and vulnerability to floods. While the influence of climate change on flood risk has been studied widely, the impact of urban development also needs to be considered in a sustainable flood risk management approach. The main goal of this study is the determination of the sensitivity of future flood risk to different urban devel~ opment scenarios at a relatively short-time horizon in the River Meuse basin in Wallonia (Belgium). From the different scenarios, the expected impact of urban development on flood risk is assessed. Three urban expansion scenarios are developed up to 2030 based on a coupled cellular automata (CA) and agent-based (AB) urban expansion model: (i) business-as-usual, (ii) restrictive and (m) extreme expansion scenarios. The main factor controlling these scenarios is the future urban land demand. Each urban expansion scenario is developed by considering or not high and/or medium flood hazard zones as a constraint for urban development. To assess the model's performance, it is calibrated for the Meuse River valley (Belgium) to simulate urban expansion between i990 and 2000. Calibration results are then assessed by comparing the 2000 simulated land-use map and the actual 2000 land-use map. The flood damage estimation for each urban expansion scenario is determined for five flood discharges by overlaying the inundation map resulting from a hydraulic computation and tlte urban expansion map and by using damage curves and specific prices. The hydraulic model Wolt‘2D has been extensively validated by comparisons between observations and computational results during flood event .This study focuses only on mobile and immobile prices for urban lands, which are associated to the most severe damages caused by floods along the River Meuse. These findings of this study offers tools to drive urban expansion based on numerous policies visions to mitigate future flood risk along the Meuse River. In particular, we assess the impacts on future flood risk of the prohibition of urban development in high and/or medium flood hazard zones. [less ▲]

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See detailDevelopment trajectory of an integrated framework for the mitigation of future flood risk: results from the FloodLand project
Saadi, Ismaïl ULiege; Bruwier, Martin ULiege; El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULiege et al

in Transportation Letters: The International Journal of Transportation Research (2016)

In this paper, the development trajectory of an integrated framework for the mitigation of future flood risk of the Ourthe river basin in Belgium is discussed. The paper contributes to the state-of-the ... [more ▼]

In this paper, the development trajectory of an integrated framework for the mitigation of future flood risk of the Ourthe river basin in Belgium is discussed. The paper contributes to the state-of-the-art by presenting an integrated multidisciplinary framework capable of making long-term projections (time horizon 2050 and 2100) with the objective of mitigating future flood risk by proposing alternative land-use scenarios. It bridges numerous different fields, including urban planning, transport engineering, hydrology, geology, environmental engineering, and economics. The overall design and validation results of the different sub-modules of the framework are presented, and ongoing and future enhancements are highlighted. [less ▲]

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See detailImpacts of urban expansion on future flood damage: A case study in the River Meuse basin, Belgium
Mustafa, Ahmed; Bruwier, Martin ULiege; Teller, Jacques ULiege et al

in Erpicum, Sébastien; Dewals, Benjamin; Archambeau, Pierre (Eds.) et al Sustainable Hydraulics in the Era of Global Change: Advances in Water Engineering and Research (2016)

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See detailDiscretization of the divergence formulation of the bed slope term in the shallow-water equations and consequences in terms of energy balance
Bruwier, Martin ULiege; Archambeau, Pierre ULiege; Erpicum, Sébastien ULiege et al

in Applied Mathematical Modelling (2016), 40(17-18), 75327544

In this research, the influence on energy balance of the discretization scheme of the divergence formulation of the bed slope term in the shallow-water equations is analysed theoretically (for a single ... [more ▼]

In this research, the influence on energy balance of the discretization scheme of the divergence formulation of the bed slope term in the shallow-water equations is analysed theoretically (for a single topographic step) and based on two numerical tests. Different values of the main parameter controlling the discretization scheme of the divergence formulation are analysed to identify the formulation which minimizes the energy variation resulting from the discretization. For a wide range of ambient Froude numbers and relative step heights, the theoretical value of the control parameter minimizing the energy variation falls within a very narrow range, which can reasonably be approximated by a single “optimal” value. This is a result of high practical relevance for the design of accurate numerical schemes, as confirmed by the results of the numerical tests. [less ▲]

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See detailEnergy conservation properties of Ritter solution for idealized dam break flow
Dewals, Benjamin ULiege; Bruwier, Martin ULiege; Erpicum, Sébastien ULiege et al

in Journal of Hydraulic Research (2016), 54(5), 581-585

We examine different aspects of energy conservation in the case of the analytical solution of Ritter for idealized dam break flow in a horizontal frictionless and dry channel. We detail the application of ... [more ▼]

We examine different aspects of energy conservation in the case of the analytical solution of Ritter for idealized dam break flow in a horizontal frictionless and dry channel. We detail the application of the unsteady Bernoulli equation in this case and highlight that the inertial effects cancel out when averaged over the whole flow region. We also show that the potential and kinetic contributions to the total mechanical energy in the flow region have a distinct and constant relative importance: potential energy accounts for 60 %, and kinetic energy for 40 % of the total mechanical energy. These properties of Ritter solution are rarely emphasized while they may be of practical relevance, particularly for the verification of numerical schemes with respect to their ability to ensure energy conservation. [less ▲]

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See detailHydrodynamics of long-duration urban floods: experiments and numerical modelling
Arrault; Finaud-Guyot, Pascal; Archambeau, Pierre ULiege et al

in Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences (2016), 16

Flood risk in urbanized areas raises increasing concerns as a result of demographic and climate changes. Hydraulic modelling is a key component of urban flood risk analysis. Yet, detailed validation data ... [more ▼]

Flood risk in urbanized areas raises increasing concerns as a result of demographic and climate changes. Hydraulic modelling is a key component of urban flood risk analysis. Yet, detailed validation data are still lacking for comprehensively validating hydraulic modelling of inundation flow in urbanized floodplains. ln this study, we present an experimental model of inundation flow in a typical European urban district and we compare the experimental observations with predictions by a shallow-water numerical model. The setup is 5 ll\X Sm and involves seven streets along each direction, leading to 49 intersections. Different inflow discharges and flow partitions were tested. The performance ofthe numerical model is assessed and the upscaling ofthe experimental observations to the field is discussed. [less ▲]

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See detailPotential damping of extreme floods in the river Meuse between Ampsin (B) and the Belgian-Dutch border
Bruwier, Martin ULiege; Archambeau, Pierre ULiege; Erpicum, Sébastien ULiege et al

in Lenders, H.J.R.; Collas, F.P.L.; Geerling, G.W. (Eds.) et al Bridging gaps between river science, governance and management. Book of Abstracts NCR-Days 2015 (2015, October)

In the framework of the Interreg IVB project AMICE, hydraulic modelling of floods in the river Meuse was performed by coordinating existing models (Dewals et al. 2012a). The influence of climate change ... [more ▼]

In the framework of the Interreg IVB project AMICE, hydraulic modelling of floods in the river Meuse was performed by coordinating existing models (Dewals et al. 2012a). The influence of climate change scenarios was incorporated indirectly in the simulations through a transnational hydrological scenario (Drogue et al. 2010; Dewals et al. 2013). For a “wet” future climate, this scenario assumes that the peak discharge Q100 of the 100-year flood would increase by 15 % for the time horizon 2021-2050 and by 30 % for the time horizon 2071-2100. However, the design discharge currently used for planning in the Netherlands is higher than those considered to date in the AMICE project. From this perspective, it becomes relevant to analyse flood scenarios corresponding to a peak discharge above Q100+30 %, referred to hereafter as an “extreme” flood. The aim of the study is to give an appreciation of the potential damping of one extreme flood scenario along the river Meuse between Ampsin (Belgium) and the Belgian-Dutch border (Figure 1). This analysis is based on the hydraulic model WOLF 2D (Erpicum et al. 2010) applied to a coarse grid with simplifications in the schematisation. The hydraulic model WOLF 2D has been already used in several studies to simulate floods (Ernst et al. 2010; Beckers et al. 2013, Bruwier et al. 2015, Detrembleur et al. 2015). The coarsening of the grid for simulating the extreme flood scenario is necessary to preserve the computational efficiency, since both the total flood duration and the inundation extents (hence the number of grid cells) increase considerably between the Q100 + 30 % scenario considered previously and the extreme scenario considered here. [less ▲]

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See detailLanduse change and future flood risk: the influence of micro-scale spatial patterns (FloodLand) - 3rd progress report
Dewals, Benjamin ULiege; Bruwier, Martin ULiege; El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULiege et al

Report (2015)

The goal of the project FloodLand is to investigate the complex interactions between landuse change and future flood risk. Landuse change is assumed to be mainly driven by population growth and socio ... [more ▼]

The goal of the project FloodLand is to investigate the complex interactions between landuse change and future flood risk. Landuse change is assumed to be mainly driven by population growth and socio-economic factors. It affects future flood risk by altering catchment hydrology as well as vulnerability in the floodplains; but the feedback effect of (the perception of) changes in flood hazard on landuse evolution is also considered. The research is based on a chain of modelling tools, which represent parts of the natural and human systems, including: landuse change modelling, transportation modelling as an onset for the estimation of indirect flood damage, continuous hydrological modelling (forced by precipitation and temperature data disturbed according to climate change scenarios), as well as efficient hydraulic modelling of inundation flow in the floodplains. Besides reproducing a broad spectrum of processes, the modelling approach spans over multiple scales, from the regional or catchment level down to the floodplain and building levels. This distinctive feature is reflected both within the individual models and through their combination involving fine-scale detailed analyses (or data) embedded within coarser models at a broader level. [less ▲]

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